Tips for the tour

[T-Bone]

Lets here you're tips for the tour. I believe it'll be much more interesting than last year, with more competition for GC. Both Vinokourov and Valverde have strong teams behind them, and Leipheimer has a reasonably strong team too. Then there are the other contenders, Menchov, Evans, Rogers, Sastre, Moreau. Should be interesting. If you want a bit of fun, go to http://www.velogames.com and put in a team, it's free, and always a challenge to predict who's going to perform. I'm trying to decide on my team for the cyclingnews competition so i can win the Cervelo, but with so many performers it's fairly difficult, and Valverde isn't an option as he costs 1/3 of your points.

Anyway, my picks for the top 5 are:

Vinokourov
Valverde
Sastre
Leipheimer
Evans

Still deciding on the order.

[lindsay]

I'm 64% Evans & 36% Vino...

[Simon Llewellyn]

It is not easy is it?

But my top 5 are;

1.Kloden
2.Rogers
3.Sastre
4.Evans
5.Preiro

& i think Moreau for a mountain top stage win...With possibly Valverde failing to finish again. If he does finish he will be in the top 5....

[T-Bone]

I think Kloden will be stuck supporting Vinokourov, but i guess with Savoldelli and Kashechkin they could go in with a dual pronged attack. Much harder to predict than last year, and last year decided to throw in a few surprises anyway, so i guess we just have to wait and see.

[Simon Llewellyn]

I didn't notice Rogers pulled out of the tour de suisse with knee problems either...

But Vino is definitely the favourite, i just think Kloden has the experience, a second in 2004 & third last year with a fair bit of consistency in the last few years. If things don't go vino's way Kloden takes pole position with the team.... Besides Kloden beat Basso a few years back behind Armstrong & if the rumours are true and Basso was loaded that is no mean feat. Or i guess if Ullrich was loaded too & finished fourth well then you can make your own assumption about kloden, but he definitely has class & has somehow kept a fairly low profile...

[mcrkennedy]

I don't think the Astana boys will actually do it. Vino is too undisplined to command respect for the whole of the three weeks. He is more likely to ruin Kolden's chances if Kolden stay his loyal lieutenant. If Vino go off attacking and can't take his troops with him then I think the other Astana riders might go with Kolden.

I think that Kolden will finish higher than Vino. As for who will win, I think that Evans is pretty strong contender for a podium position. After the prologue I don't think that Leipheimer will be able to maintain the effort I think his TT is a bit suspect. Valverde is an unknown in this race as still has to finish it but I think he might just do it.

Evan seems to be able to survive with few helpers in the mountains so I think that if Horner has a good tour and with a bit more help he could be a real chance.

So my top three are in order:
Evan
Kolden
Valverde

Then
Vinokourov
Leipheimer
Moreau

[FAswad]

I am gonna have to go:

1- Andreas Kloden
Carlos Sastre
Leipheimer
Cadel Evans
Alexander Vinokourov
Alejandro Valverde

Why Kloden?

I would argue that this time, there is a big chance that Kloden will not lose big time in the mountains like he did in 2006 when he stayed behind with the Peloton as decisive breaks were made and the tour was won. This time, while dutifully supporting Vino in the mountains, he will be right there in front with him, thus minimising time differences with the real contenders in the mountain stages. With small time differences in the mountains, Kloden's TTing will win him yellow.

Should Vino decide he will single handedly deal with Kloden's threat in the mountains, using his suicidal go-it-alone antics, there's a big chance he will pop during one of the mountain stages, leaving Kloden the undisputed leader of the Team.

[mikesbytes]

NFI

[FAswad]

I think we should have a mini league on velogames.com

there seems to be a few BHBC players.

[T-Bone]

Good idea, I've made one.

League Owner: James Fowler
Owner Email: ********
League Name: Dulwich Hill Bicycle Club
League Code: 11110459

Just join up!!!

I had a lot more trouble deciding who to put in my cyclingnews team. All the favourites cost too much, but i think i've got something good enough, i'll find out in a couple of weeks anyway.

[T-Bone]

Those Astana boys are having a bit of trouble, hopefully they'll stick in there, but it seems likely the Kloden will pull out sometime in the next few stages, but Vino looks to be toughing it out. Doesn't look good for my cyclingnews teams, both of them are in there.....

[FAswad]

Great stage. Great to see Mayo doing well. Valverde is looking solid, and Cadel Evans is still in there. I'm not sure about Astana's tactics though. Getting Kloden out of contention to save Vino a few seconds. That was a bit silly.

Must also say Rogers crash was very dissapointing. Great chance everything would have been different had he stayed upright. McEwan not making it was also disappointing, but one can only think it all the better for Evans.

Do you think it would be possible for Rasmussen to rack up enough seconds in the mountains to compensate for his dismal TTing and be able to hold on to yellow? If he attacks =tomorrow, will he be able to hold on to his lead on the final descent? Not since 1998 have I been that excited about a TDF.

[mikesbytes]

Didn't they average something like 30.5kph over the stage? Pretty amazing.

Caldel Evans ain't that far from the pointy end, he could end up with an overall placing.

Shame about the accidents.

[T-Bone]

34.18km/h for Rasmussan at least.

Astana may decide to look to Kasheckin for overall, but i'd wait until the Pyrenees before seeing if that's true. There's still a long way to go in this tour.

[mikesbytes]

34.18kmh !!!!! the average dude couldn't average that down hill

[T-Bone]

yeah, and the stage included 70km or so of uphill, but Rasmussan is a freak when it comes to the mountains.

[T-Bone]

Stage 9 was even faster just over 38km/h, but less climbing. It was good to see a sign of life in the favourites at least, though unfortunately Vino lost some more time, looks as though Kloden will be Astana's hope. Menchov also didn't have the legs today, but i still think the Time trials and the Pyrenees will play a big role in deciding the winner of the tour.

Also, if you didn't watch the stage or may have missed a bit, check this out, http://www3.vrtnieuws.net/sport_master/ ... ideo02.wmv the wheel just collapses and the dog barely notices. The rider is Burghardt.

[T-Bone]

Well, looks like my cyclingnews teams are done for after my stage 11 picks for some reason didn't get through, i noticed just after the stage cutoff even though i had saved them the previous day, so i sent a message through with my picks, just have to wait and see if they will restore them. If they do my better team will be up to 13th place at the moment, rather than the 66th that i'm in due to the stage 11 selections not working. I guess at the end of the tour, if none of my teams would have been in the top 11 (prize winners) then i won't be too concerned, but at the moment it's just pissing me off.

Anyway, just venting some frustration.

[T-Bone]

I guess i'm the winner of our velogames mini-league.


Rank---Team--------------------Directeur----------Score
34------DHBC--------------------James Fowler-----6473
437-----OzziBattlers------------Adrian E------------5076
528-----TeamGeorginaInc-----Georgina Helais----4946
653-----Stretch-----------------Stretch--------------4774
2108----Aswad Pro Cycling----Fouad Aswad-------3144


Next up will be the Vuelta, so i expect some more competition!!!

[weiyun]

yeah, and the stage included 70km or so of uphill, but Rasmussan is a freak when it comes to the mountains.

No kidding!